Food Security Update and Implications of Ukraine Conflict in Tajikistan (April 2022) – Tajikistan

The affect of sanctions on Russia is prone to be felt by international locations with robust financial ties to Russia, together with Tajikistan. Research have highlighted {that a} sharp financial slowdown in Russia can have a excessive affect on remittances and in some circumstances, commerce for Tajikistan.

Earlier than the Ukraine battle, the financial system of Tajikistan was anticipated to make additional rebounds after a hunch in 2020. Nonetheless, with a slowdown in remittances anticipated because of the Ukraine battle, this anticipated continuation of financial restoration in 2022 is unlikely to return to fruition.

Domestically, costs of some key meals commodities continued to rise all through 2021 throughout main markets in Tajikistan. This included wheat flour, cotton and vegetable oil, and meat, in addition to gasoline (petrol and diesel). In 2022, costs of some commodities have risen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, together with wheat, sugar, cooking oil in addition to gasoline. As of 28 March 2022, in comparison with a month earlier than, costs of petrol and diesel rose by 19 and 21 p.c respectively, wheat flour by 15 p.c, sugar by 16 p.c and vegetable oil by 5 p.c.

The meals safety evaluation carried out by WFP in August 2021 labeled virtually one-fifth of the households in Tajikistan as meals insecure. Moreover, the next proportion of femaleheaded households have been labeled as meals insecure in comparison with male-headed households. Lack of affordability was highlighted as one of many primary causes for meals insecurity.

The evaluation additionally highlighted excessive reliance of just about one-fifth of the households on seasonal migration by bringing remittances from overseas, primarily Russia. If the Russian financial system struggles from financial sanctions, the Tajik migrants will face the prospect of dropping jobs in Russia inflicting the remittance dependent households to lose their main revenue supply.

The evaluation discovered that round 32 p.c of households have been spending greater than 65 p.c of their whole expenditure on meals and these households are going to be the toughest hit from rising costs and revenue losses.

It’s projected {that a} mixed affect of remittance loss and value rise is prone to trigger a rise in meals insecurity in Tajikistan by 16 proportion factors, from 20 p.c to 36 p.c throughout Tajikistan.